On the Bernstein-von Mises phenomenon for nonparametric Bayes procedures

We continue the investigation of Bernstein-von Mises theorems for nonparametric Bayes procedures from [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 1999-2028]. We introduce multiscale spaces on which nonparametric priors and posteriors are naturally defined, and prove Bernstein-von Mises theorems for a variety of priors in the setting of Gaussian nonparametric regression and in the i.i.d. sampling model. From these results we deduce several applications where posterior-based inference coincides with efficient frequentist procedures, including Donsker- and Kolmogorov-Smirnov theorems for the random posterior cumulative distribution functions. We also show that multiscale posterior credible bands for the regression or density function are optimal frequentist confidence bands.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1246 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

IMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL-INTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS FOR COMMUNAL RESOURCE OWNERS: THE CASE OF COMMUNAL FARMERS IN ECUADOR

The introduction in Ecuador of a primary irrigation infrastructure into a communal setting where land users did not fully control the land and had effectively no access to credit, produced a sell off of nearly all irrigable lands. The change in land reservation prices between buyers and sellers is analyzed.Land Economics/Use,

Análisis del sistema de referencia de pacientes tratados por cáncer colorrectal en complejo asistencial Dr. Sótero del Río y propuesta de intervención

Tesis (MBA con especialización en salud)El cáncer colorrectal (CCR) es un problema de salud incipiente en Chile que requiere implementación de estrategias para la detección precoz. El objetivo de este estudio es realizar un diagnóstico de los CCR diagnosticados en Complejo Asistencial Dr. Sótero de Río (CASR) según origen de derivaciones como reflejo del funcionamiento de la red de salud. Estudio de los casos de CCR diagnosticados en CASR en 2016 (beneficiarios de FONASA). De acuerdo al origen de derivación (APS, extrasistema), se analizó variables demográficas y de estado de avance del CCR, tiempos de espera y resultados perioperatorios inmediatos

[Review of] James Officer. Hispanic Arizona, 1536-1856

One of the glaring gaps in Southwestern historiography has been the lack of a modern scholarly interpretation of the Spanish and Mexican presence in Arizona. Hubert Howe Bancroft\u27s History of the North Mexican States and Texas and John F. Bannon\u27s The Spanish Borderlands Frontier, 1513-1821 have been the best sources for the study of pre-American Arizona, but these works treat the history of this region as a subtopic of a larger story. With the publication of Hispanic Arizona, scholars now have a thorough, detailed and scholarly study that is entirely devoted to the history of northern Sonora and southern Arizona

Nonparametric Bernstein-von Mises theorems in Gaussian white noise

Bernstein-von Mises theorems for nonparametric Bayes priors in the Gaussian white noise model are proved. It is demonstrated how such results justify Bayes methods as efficient frequentist inference procedures in a variety of concrete nonparametric problems. Particularly Bayesian credible sets are constructed that have asymptotically exact $1-\alpha$ frequentist coverage level and whose $L^2$-diameter shrinks at the minimax rate of convergence (within logarithmic factors) over H\"{o}lder balls. Other applications include general classes of linear and nonlinear functionals and credible bands for auto-convolutions. The assumptions cover nonconjugate product priors defined on general orthonormal bases of $L^2$ satisfying weak conditions.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOS1133 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Inverse association between diabetes and altitude: a cross-sectional study in the adult population of the United States.

ObjectiveTo determine whether geographical elevation is inversely associated with diabetes, while adjusting for multiple risk factors.MethodsThis is a cross-sectional analysis of publicly available online data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2009. Final dataset included 285,196 US adult subjects. Odds ratios were obtained from multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis.ResultsAmong US adults (≥20 years old), the odds ratio for diabetes was 1.00 between 0 and 499 m of altitude (reference), 0.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.01) between 500 and 1,499 m, and 0.88 (0.81-0.96) between 1,500 and 3,500 m, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, self-reported fruit and vegetable consumption, self-reported physical activity, current smoking status, level of education, income, health status, employment status, and county-level information on migration rate, urbanization, and latitude. The inverse association between altitude and diabetes in the US was found among men [0.84 (0.76-0.94)], but not women [1.09 (0.97-1.22)].ConclusionsAmong US adults, living at high altitude (1,500-3,500 m) is associated with lower odds of having diabetes than living between 0 and 499 m, while adjusting for multiple risk factors. Our findings suggest that geographical elevation may be an important factor linked to diabetes